Where film money will come from in 2027

Five of the nine trends

I'm comparing the oldest plans, from 2018 to 2019, with the newest, from 2024 to 2025.

• Tax incentives are now the base of the budget. They went from 18% of the money to 28%.
• Gap lending is disappearing. Gap loans fell from 26% of the money to 6%, and the median film in the latest plans used none at all.
• Lenders price by what they can point to. From a specialist film lender, a loan against a tax credit costs 8% to 11% a year, and a gap loan 18% to 25%.
• Pre-sales still pay about a fifth of the budget, from fewer places. They rose from 13% of the money to 20%, and a single buyer's decision (usually an American one) now carries a bigger slice of the plan.
• The equity cheque is getting bigger. Equity is now 36% of the money, up from 20%, and it's still paid last.

The report ends with what Phil and I think a 2027 finance plan will look like. So if you're putting one together for next year, you might want to start there.

It's for producers and production-company principals working on films over $1m, producers stepping up to that level, and people who finance, sell or advise on those films.

What's changed since 2018?

Where the money comes from has changed a lot, at least for films budgeted at $1m or more. But the numbers from actual deals rarely get published, so you often only see them once you're in a deal of your own.

I put the report together with Phil Hunt, one of the busiest backers of independent film anywhere, and this is how he sums up where the money is heading. "Film finance is starting to look like infrastructure finance."

Infrastructure investors (the people who fund toll roads and wind farms) want, in his words, "collateral they can identify, cash they can predict and protection when things go wrong." I went through the 103 finance plans, and I found film money reorganising around exactly those three things.

Who's it from?

I'm Stephen Follows, a film data researcher. I've spent 20 years working in and studying the film business, and I publish what I find at StephenFollows.com, which has nearly 15,000 subscribers.

Phil Hunt co-founded Head Gear Films in 2002 and has executive produced more than 300 feature films. Few people have financed more independent films.

Phil has opened his files to me, and the report sets out what was counted and how.

Get all nine trends, and what a 2027 finance plan looks like

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